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Poland-Germany Trade: Shrinking Surplus Amid Global Shifts

Posted on 14 February 2025 by The Poland Report

Polish exports to Germany declined by 3.9% year-over-year, reaching EUR 94.8 billion in 2024, while imports fell by 1.6% to EUR 67.2 billion, according to the Central Statistical Office of Poland.

Germany’s share in Polish exports decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 27.1%, while its share in imports dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 19.2%. The trade surplus with Germany stood at PLN 119.2 billion (USD 30 billion, EUR 27.6 billion), down from PLN 138.8 billion (USD 32.8 billion, EUR 30.3 billion) in 2023.

Trade Trends with Key Partners

Trade with Poland’s top ten partners accounted for 66.3% of total exports (compared to 66.2% in 2023) and 61.4% of total imports (up from 60.7% the previous year). Overall, Polish exports declined by 6.3%, while imports decreased by 3.8%.

Despite an overall decline, exports to Ukraine increased by 9.7%, and exports to the United States saw a modest rise of 0.3%. On the import side, the United States recorded a significant increase of 10.6%, followed by Saudi Arabia (5.1%), France (1.6%), Spain (1.6%), and China (0.6%).

Poland posted a small foreign trade surplus of PLN 3 billion in 2024, a sharp decline from the PLN 45.1 billion surplus in 2023. The total export value reached PLN 1.5122 trillion, while imports amounted to PLN 1.5092 trillion.

Role of Developed and EU Markets

Developed countries remained Poland’s key trade partners, accounting for 86.4% of exports and 64.8% of imports. EU member states made up 74% of exports and 52.8% of imports. Poland maintained a trade surplus of PLN 327.9 billion with developed economies, with a particularly strong balance of PLN 322.1 billion within the EU. Conversely, trade with developing countries resulted in a deficit of PLN 374.1 billion.

Germany’s Position and Trade Patterns

Germany retained its status as Poland’s largest trade partner despite a shrinking share in both exports and imports. The trade surplus with Germany fell to PLN 119.2 billion from PLN 138.8 billion the previous year.

Among Poland’s major trade partners, only Ukraine and the United States experienced export growth, while on the import side, increases were seen from the United States, Saudi Arabia, France, Spain, and China.

Trade data also revealed that Germany’s share of Polish imports was 6 percentage points higher when assessed by country of shipment rather than the country of origin. Similar disparities were noted for the Netherlands (2.6 percentage points), Belgium (1.9 percentage points), and the Czech Republic (1.1 percentage points).

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