As Poland prepares for the 2025 presidential election, concerns are mounting about the integrity of the electoral process. With the ruling party ignoring a Supreme Court ruling and withholding essential budgetary funds, questions arise about whether the elections can truly be free and fair. The opposition faces significant disadvantages, raising doubts about whether the vote will meet democratic standards.
At the same time, the government has introduced measures aimed at preventing foreign interference, particularly from Russia, yet it openly disregards domestic legal norms. This contradiction raises an essential question: Can an election be considered fair if external threats are taken seriously while internal rule of law violations are ignored?
Historian and political analyst Professor Stanisław Żerko expressed his concerns on social media platform “X,” questioning the fairness of the election:
“Uczciwe wybory prezydenckie w kraju, w którym rząd odcina główną partię opozycyjną od należnego jej dofinansowania z budżetu?” (“Fair presidential elections in a country where the government cuts off the main opposition party from its rightful budgetary funding?”).
Uczciwe wybory prezydenckie w kraju, w którym rząd odcina główną partię opozycyjną od należnego jej dofinansowania z budżetu?
— Stanisław Żerko (@StZerko) February 18, 2025
His statement echoes broader fears that democratic principles are being systematically undermined.
The Role of Institutions in Election Legitimacy
The legitimacy of an election depends on the oversight of key institutions. The Supreme Court, the National Electoral Commission (PKW), and the Constitutional Tribunal all play a role in ensuring free and fair elections, but recent events suggest that their independence may be compromised.
Supreme Court
The Supreme Court is the ultimate authority in determining the validity of an election. It reviews election protests and decides whether violations were serious enough to affect the outcome. However, with the government dismissing unfavorable rulings, the effectiveness of this oversight is in question.
National Electoral Commission (PKW)
PKW oversees the voting process and ensures compliance with election laws. While it lacks the power to nullify elections, its reports influence Supreme Court decisions. Allegations of governmental interference raise concerns about its neutrality.
Constitutional Tribunal
In extreme cases, the Constitutional Tribunal can assess whether the election process aligns with constitutional principles. However, its current composition, heavily influenced by the ruling party, makes impartial judgments unlikely.
Grounds for Election Invalidation
For an election to be invalidated, there must be substantial evidence of irregularities that impact results. Several factors could contribute to such a scenario in 2025:
Voting Irregularities
- Reports of vote tampering, incorrect ballot counting, or widespread errors in ballot distribution could cast doubt on the election’s legitimacy.
- Discrepancies in voter lists or missing ballots might indicate systemic fraud.
Unfair Campaign Practices
- The opposition’s inability to access state funding while the ruling party benefits from government resources creates an uneven playing field.
- Allegations of media censorship and restricted campaign financing further disadvantage opposition candidates.
Election Organization Failures
- Insufficient polling stations or logistical failures that disproportionately affect opposition strongholds could be used as grounds for an election challenge.
- Reports of biased election officials could raise concerns about the integrity of vote counting.
Foreign Influence vs. Domestic Rule of Law Violations
The Polish government has emphasized the threat of foreign interference, particularly from Russia, in an attempt to secure the election process. The “Election Umbrella” program has been launched to counteract cyber threats, secure voting infrastructure, and prevent disinformation campaigns. However, while these efforts aim to maintain electoral integrity, they starkly contrast with the government’s internal disregard for legal norms.
On one hand, authorities stress the importance of neutralizing Russian influence to protect Polish democracy. On the other, they openly violate Supreme Court rulings, refuse to distribute legally mandated funding to the opposition, and implement measures that disproportionately favor the ruling party. This contradiction raises a troubling question: If foreign interference is seen as a dire threat to democracy, why is internal legal misconduct tolerated?
Critics argue that while external threats cannot be ignored, Poland’s greatest challenge to democracy may come from within. Professor Żerko’s observations encapsulates this dilemma, questioning whether an election can be deemed fair when the opposition is financially handicapped by deliberate state actions. If a government selectively enforces laws to benefit itself while suppressing political rivals, can the election truly be considered legitimate?
The Financial Disparity and Its Consequences
A major controversy overshadowing the 2025 election is the refusal to release state funds to the opposition, particularly to the campaign of Karol Nawrocki, the leading opposition candidate. While the ruling party enjoys unrestricted access to financial resources, the opposition struggles to fund its campaign. This imbalance raises concerns about electoral discrimination, as financial inequality can significantly impact a candidate’s visibility and reach.
Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of the opposition Law and Justice Party (PiS), has publicly condemned the financial blockade, urging supporters to donate to Nawrocki’s campaign.
“We are being denied the funds we are legally entitled to. The government believes the law does not apply to them,” he stated.
The lack of state funding puts the opposition at a severe disadvantage, reinforcing claims that the election is neither free nor fair.
The “Election Umbrella” and Accusations of Censorship
In response to potential cyber threats and foreign interference, the Polish government has introduced the “Election Umbrella” program, designed to secure the electoral process. While presented as a security measure, the opposition warns that it may serve as a tool for censorship.
Critics argue that the program could be used to suppress unfavorable narratives under the guise of combating misinformation. Former Minister of Education Przemysław Czarnek voiced concerns that the government might exploit the initiative to control online discourse and silence opposition voices. The program’s vague definitions and broad authority raise fears of selective enforcement.
The 2025 Polish presidential election
The 2025 Polish presidential election faces significant hurdles that call its integrity into question. From financial discrimination against the opposition to concerns over media control and potential cyber threats, the democratic process appears to be under strain. While foreign interference remains a legitimate concern, the government’s internal legal violations may pose an even greater threat to electoral integrity. If Poland is serious about protecting democracy, it must address both external and domestic challenges rather than using the former as a distraction from the latter.