Poland is facing a severe demographic crisis, drawing comparisons to South Korea, which has the lowest fertility rate in the world. According to economists from Bank Pekao, Poland’s fertility rate is expected to drop below 1.0 by 2026 and reach just 0.8 by 2030. With the current rate at 1.10, Poland is already among those with the lowest birth rates globally.
If this trend continues, the economic and social consequences could be dire. What are the causes and possible solutions to combat this dangerous trend? Do we need a revolution in the approach to reach far beyond just economic factors?
Demographic Crisis’ Causes
According to experts Poland’s declining birth rate is a result of a complex interplay of economic, social, cultural, and political factors.
- High Costs of Raising Children: The financial burden of education, healthcare, housing, and everyday expenses discourages many couples from having children.
- Insufficient Financial Support: Government programs like 500+ (now 800+) have improved household incomes but failed to significantly boost birth rates, as they are seen as temporary relief rather than a systemic solution.
- Job Market Challenges: Job insecurity, temporary contracts, and difficulties in balancing work and family life (such as a lack of flexible work hours) further deter people from starting families.
- Changing Role of Women: More Polish women are prioritizing education and career advancement, leading to a delay in childbearing.
Unequal Distribution of Household Duties: Women still carry the primary burden of childcare and domestic responsibilities, which discourages them from having more children.
Many analysts find a positive correlation between secularization of a particular society and its low willingness to have children. The shift from traditional values (family, community) to individualistic ones (self-fulfillment, independence) has reduced the appeal of parenthood. Other important factor is social pressure for career and success. Despite family being culturally valued among Poles, young people face expectations for professional achievement that often conflict with family life.
Furthermore, a shrinking number of women in reproductive age in Poland (also due to extensive migration after Poland joined the EU) further limits birth rate potential. Some experts claim, the lack of nurseries, preschools, and support for single parents makes it also harder to raise children.
Can Poland Reverse This Trend?
To combat its demographic decline Poland needs a multi-pronged approach that addresses both economic realities and societal attitudes. Introducing more targeted programs such as tax relief for families, housing subsidies, and education vouchers. Expanding access to nurseries, preschools, and flexible childcare options to help parents balance work and family life. Encouraging permanent contracts. This all could be beneficial but critics say, the reality is not that simple and a broader approach is needed, such as raising public awareness of the long-term consequences of low fertility and the benefits of having children is necessary.
The Role of Changing Social Values in Demographic Crisis
Shifting societal priorities back toward family life could reinforce pronatalist policies. Poland historically valued family, but modern trends have shifted focus toward career success and personal comfort (recently we published and article about changing attitudes of Polish women toward conservative values). Encouraging a balance between individualism and family life through cultural initiatives, media campaigns, and education could gradually influence attitudes.
However, cultural change alone won’t be enough. Studies from Eurostat and Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) show that even in countries with strong social policies, such as Scandinavia, fertility rates remain below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. In Poland, the fertility rate stood at approximately 1.3 in 2023, indicating that practical systemic solutions must accompany any ideological shifts to overcome demographic crisis.
Poland’s low birth rate is driven by a combination of economic, social, and cultural challenges. While cultural shifts can help, tangible improvements in financial support, childcare infrastructure, job security, and housing access are crucial. The key to reversing the demographic decline is creating an environment where having children is not seen as a burden but as a natural and positive part of life. Without these changes, Poland risks following South Korea’s path toward a deepening demographic crisis.
The Portrayal of Family and Fertility in Polish Media
The representation of family and fertility in Polish media is multifaceted but often marked by ambivalence. On one hand, family is portrayed as a fundamental social value, supported by research showing that family happiness remains a top priority for Poles. For instance, CBOS surveys consistently indicate that around 80% of respondents emphasize the importance of family. Conservative and Catholic media actively promote the family as a source of stability, love, and fulfillment. Social campaigns by organizations like the “Mom and Dad Foundation” highlight the positive aspects of parenthood.
On the other hand, mainstream media, including TV series and advertisements, typically present small families with one or two children, reflecting social reality but also reinforcing the perception that larger families are rare or burdensome. Large families are often associated with poverty, dependence on social welfare, or dysfunction, as noted by the Association of Large Families “Three Plus.” In pop culture (e.g., movies and TV shows), families are frequently depicted as sites of conflict, infidelity, or divorce, further shaping negative perceptions. Advertisers rarely feature large families, as they are seen as a less attractive consumer demographic, focused primarily on basic needs.
Fertility in Media: Crisis vs. Encouragement
Fertility is often framed as a crisis in the media, with alarmist narratives about “demographic collapse.” However, instead of encouraging narratives, the media focus primarily on economic burdens (the cost of raising children), legal aspects (abortion laws), and societal pressures (career over family), painting parenthood as a difficult choice rather than a fulfilling one.
Family: “More Struggles than Fulfillment” story
The media associate family with both struggles and fulfillment, but the emphasis depends on the context:
Media narratives often highlight instability, divorce (with divorce rates rising in Poland), domestic violence, and economic challenges. Studies indicate that negative emotions sell better in the media, as noted by former Polish Bishops’ Conference spokesman, Father Józef Kloch, who observed a bias toward conflict-driven portrayals of family (e.g., the controversy around the Istanbul Convention on domestic violence). Large families are frequently stereotyped as dysfunctional, despite data from an IPSOS report for the “Three Plus” Association showing that 92% of large-family members report life satisfaction.
A positive image of family appears mostly in niche media or social campaigns. Narratives emphasizing family as a source of happiness focus on partnership, love, and intergenerational support—CBOS research indicates that 20% of Poles live in multigenerational households. However, these messages are less visible in mainstream media, overshadowed by sensationalized content.
Why Are Poles Reluctant to Have Children, and How Can This Be Changed?
In order to reverse negative trensd media ought to promote positive family stories, showcasing both small and large families as a source of joy and fulfillment. Highlight real-life examples of content parents, as seen in campaigns like “Family Matters,” while avoiding negative stereotypes. There shoud be present more media content about government family support programs (e.g., 500+ benefits, flexible childcare options) and showcase successful family policies in other countries, such as France, which has improved fertility rates through strategic social policies. Media instead of constantly contradicting Poles’ values could counteract concerns about legal and economic uncertainty by providing clear information about prenatal care, housing benefits, and financial incentives for families.
Polish media largely reinforce the perception of family as a source of struggles, though some initiatives highlight its fulfilling aspects.
Changing Poles’ attitudes toward parenthood requires a consistent, positive media narrative, systemic support, and breaking stereotypes—both in the media and public discourse.