Could Polish troops participate as part of a future stabilization mission i Ukraine? According to Dariusz Łukowski, head of the National Security Bureau (BBN), the answer for now is “no”—but he did not rule out such a scenario in the future.
Speaking on Radio Zet, Łukowski emphasized that Poland may face “significant pressure” from other countries to contribute militarily to Ukraine’s stabilization. He outlined potential forms of Polish involvement, including:
- Military Mission? Establishing a demarcation line after the war could require up to 100,000 soldiers, and Poland has one of the largest land armies in Europe.
- Aerial Patrols? Poland could help secure Ukraine’s airspace by deploying fighter jets from Polish territory.
What About the U.S.?
At the same time, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth visited Warsaw, focusing on Polish-American military cooperation. Łukowski noted that the U.S. is shifting its strategic priorities toward the Indo-Pacific, meaning Europe must take greater responsibility for its own security.
Defense Industry—Key to Sovereignty
Łukowski also pointed out the shortcomings of Europe’s defense industry. Merely increasing military spending is not enough if European countries cannot produce the necessary weaponry independently.
General Roman Polko’s Blunt Assessment
“Poland cannot ensure its security by burying its head in the sand. When a crisis unfolds near our borders, we must be part of the solution,” said General Roman Polko in an interview with WP, responding to government statements on Poland’s potential role in a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently reaffirmed that Poland does not plan to send troops to Ukraine—a statement he has now made three times in recent weeks. This declaration came ahead of an emergency summit in Paris attended by leaders from Poland, the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark, alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
The summit was called in response to European frustration over the outcome of the Munich Security Conference, where U.S. special envoy General Keith Kellogg announced that Europe would not directly participate in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Meanwhile, France and the UK are pushing for action, declaring their willingness to send troops to Ukraine to secure a buffer zone between Russian and Ukrainian forces. In Poland, opposition to such a move remains strong, with figures like Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and PiS politician Michał Dworczyk rejecting the idea.
“Dismissing this option outright is pure populism. How can we reject a military deployment when we don’t even know the conditions under which peacekeeping forces might operate? We should be involved in Ukraine because maintaining future peace is a matter of Poland’s security,” General Polko argued.
General Polko: Peacekeeping Requires a Strong Coalition
“Success hinges on forming a strong international peacekeeping coalition. We could engage forces from Turkey or China—nations that Russia would hesitate to challenge. The U.S. should also play a role in maintaining the peace they help negotiate,” Polko suggested.
Poland, he added, would play a critical logistical role, as “the majority of supplies for a peacekeeping contingent would flow through Jasionka Airport and the Polish-Ukrainian border.”
If the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) serves as a model, a Ukrainian buffer zone would require over 100,000 troops and span approximately 20 kilometers to prevent both sides from exchanging fire over peacekeeping forces.
The Rise of “Predatory States”
“Poland must engage in Ukraine’s peace process with its own interests in mind, seeking security guarantees and continued U.S. presence,” argued retired Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj, a military analyst at the University of Białystok and the War Studies Academy.
He believes international politics is entering an era of “predatory states,” where leaders—like Trump—prioritize realpolitik and strategic interests over ideological values.
“The U.S. under such leadership expects allies to contribute meaningfully—by purchasing arms, for example—rather than relying solely on American power. Most European politicians are unprepared for this mindset because they still believe in the strength of shared values,” Korowaj concluded.
Trump’s Push for a Ceasefire
Since February 12, Donald Trump and his administration have intensified efforts to end the three-year war between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. president has held talks with both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. According to Bloomberg, Trump is racing to broker a ceasefire before April 20.
France, as early as last fall, sought to form a coalition of five to eight countries determined to act. Reuters has reported that France and the UK discussed sending troops to Ukraine, while Baltic and Scandinavian nations engaged in similar talks with Kyiv.
Meanwhile, military experts suggest that Russia is struggling to sustain ground offensives in eastern Ukraine, making a ceasefire increasingly likely.
Polish Troops in Ukraine? A Limited Role at Best
The ongoing war and the prospect of peace raise critical questions: Should Poland send troops to Ukraine? If not, will it lose credibility with Trump’s America? If it does, will the U.S. guarantee that it will intervene if Polish soldiers come under fire?
NATO at a Crossroads
When Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine, his goals extended beyond Kyiv. He aimed to fracture the Western alliance, weaken NATO’s eastern flank, and sow discord within the EU. This broader strategy was reflected in the ultimatum presented by Russian diplomat Alexander Grushko in Geneva in December 2021.
Former Ambassador Cichocki: A Deployment is Possible
“I wouldn’t rule out any scenarios over the next 5-10 years,” said former Polish Ambassador to Ukraine Bartosz Cichocki in an RMF FM interview, when asked whether Polish troops could be deployed as peacekeepers.
Cichocki argued that in today’s world, “those who back their words with action are the ones who succeed.”
Asked whether Trump had “betrayed” Ukraine, he responded:
“Trump is first and foremost accountable to American voters. He simply says out loud what many European capitals are already thinking.”
Poland as America’s Forward Base in Europe?
Asked whether Poland might become collateral damage in a U.S.-Russia agreement, Cichocki suggested that Washington views Poland as a critical outpost—not just against Russia, but also in response to troubling political shifts in Germany.
European Defense Industry Lagging Behind
Cichocki criticized the EU’s defense funding system, arguing that it disproportionately benefits top French, German, Spanish, and Italian firms rather than fostering a balanced European defense industry.
“The war in Ukraine proves that defense industries must operate right behind the front lines. There’s no time to wait for deliveries of ammunition, armored vehicles, or tanks,” he warned.
Poland’s potential involvement in Ukraine remains a complex and evolving issue. While official statements emphasize that no deployment is planned, shifting geopolitical realities and international pressure could change the situation. With the U.S. shifting its focus to the Indo-Pacific and Europe taking on greater security responsibilities, Poland may need to reassess its stance. The future of European stability could depend on strategic decisions made today, balancing national interests with broader regional security considerations.